As the U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris looms, the question of whether cryptocurrency will make its way into the discussion remains uncertain. Despite the growing prominence of digital currencies, prediction markets indicate that the odds are slim.
On Polymarket, a platform where users bet on the likelihood of specific debate topics, the chances of Trump mentioning “crypto” or “Bitcoin” stand at a modest 17%. This reflects a cautious outlook among traders, who wager 17 cents per share on the possibility. Should Trump bring up these terms, each share would pay out $1 in cryptocurrency; otherwise, the investment is lost.
More pressing issues are likely to dominate the conversation. According to Polymarket, there’s an 83% probability that Trump will address “abortion,” making it the most likely topic. Meanwhile, Trump’s penchant for branding his opponents might also come into play, with a 40% chance of him referring to Harris as “Comrade Kamala.”
Vice President Kamala Harris is even less likely to mention anything crypto-related, with her odds sitting at just 13%. For her, “abortion” also leads the list of likely topics at 87%, followed by a 58% chance of labeling Trump a “convicted felon.”
The dynamics between the candidates are telling. Trump has openly courted the crypto community, seeking votes and donations, whereas Harris, part of an administration often seen as unfriendly to the industry, has kept her distance.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have grown in popularity as tools for gauging public sentiment. Critics liken them to gambling, but advocates argue they provide a more accurate pulse on potential outcomes than traditional polling methods. This is because traders, who stand to gain or lose financially, are motivated to make well-informed predictions.
The 2024 election cycle has seen a surge in prediction market activity, with Polymarket reporting record trading volumes. Last Friday, the platform saw its highest-ever trading day, with $34 million in bets placed, according to Dune Analytics.
Manifold, another prediction platform that uses “play money” rather than real currency, places the odds of “bitcoin” being mentioned at just 12%. This ranks it near the bottom of potential debate topics, alongside less likely phrases like “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). While Manifold users can’t cash out their earnings, they can build a reputation as accurate predictors, adding a layer of competition.
