As Bitcoin celebrates a Christmas Eve surge back to $98,000, market analysts are looking ahead to 2025, identifying key factors that could significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s future. According to Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank, three major forces will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming year: the Trump administration’s encryption policy, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and the looming US government debt.
Hasegawa points to the Trump administration’s stance on cryptocurrency as a primary driver of market sentiment. The administration’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, along with the appointment of pro-cryptocurrency officials, are expected to heavily influence the price of Bitcoin, XRP, Dogecoin, and other major cryptocurrencies. The market will be closely watching developments on these fronts.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy also remains a critical factor. Hasegawa notes the historical correlation between loose monetary policy and rising Bitcoin prices. While the Fed has cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, President Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods, potentially reaching as high as 60% on Chinese goods, could fuel inflation and force the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, potentially dampening Bitcoin’s growth.
Finally, the escalating US government debt is emerging as a new concern. Hasegawa emphasizes that a high-interest rate environment will exacerbate the debt burden. Should concerns about debt sustainability arise, and if the US strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin’s perceived safe-haven status, often likened to “digital gold,” could attract increased attention and potentially drive its valuation even higher.
