Cryptocurrency analysis firm Blofin has released its latest perspectives in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Blofin’s analysis suggests that the baseline scenario for the economy is a gradual decline in both inflation and growth, with recession risks not being significantly high. This outlook contrasts with the recent broad pullback observed in commodities and risk assets such as stocks, which indicates a rise in risk-averse trading at the macro level. The market’s near-term focus will be on economic growth and potential “grey rhino” events—highly probable but neglected threats.
According to Blofin, significant price changes in BTC are more likely driven by market microstructure rather than the risk-averse trading that affects other assets. This distinction highlights the unique dynamics within the cryptocurrency market. The firm notes that a similar gamma distribution pattern, dominated by negative gamma, is prevalent across multiple markets. This pattern may contribute to the similar price fluctuation trends observed in various assets, not just in the crypto market.
As the FOMC meeting approaches, risk-averse sentiment continues to impact short-term skews of BTC, keeping them negative. The recovery in the butterfly index—a measure of market volatility—further indicates investor concerns about recent risks. Blofin’s insights suggest that while macroeconomic factors play a role, the microstructure of the BTC market is a significant driver of its price changes.
The FED will announce its interest rate decision today at 6 p.m. London time.
