Bitcoin is on the cusp of breaking the $70,000 barrier as investors closely monitor the upcoming U.S. presidential election, now just two weeks away. Early Monday in Asia, Bitcoin surged to a high of $69,450 before easing to $68,768 by 11:30 a.m. in Hong Kong.
“The $70,000 mark represents a significant psychological resistance point, aligning closely with Bitcoin’s all-time high of over $73,700 set in March this year,” said Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research.
Election Uncertainty Boosts Bitcoin Sentiment
The looming November 5th presidential election is driving attention toward Bitcoin, which has become a mainstream political issue. “For the first time, crypto has entered the political conversation, engaging a wider audience,” noted David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX.
The election’s outcome is of particular interest to the crypto sector, with rising odds of Donald Trump securing victory adding bullish momentum. While opponent Kamala Harris has recently expressed support for crypto-related policies, Trump has historically favored Web3 sectors, including Bitcoin mining, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
Data from Polymarket, a prediction market platform, shows Trump leading Harris by 21%, with 60% odds of victory. However, FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate shows Harris holding a slim 1.8% lead, though her margin has narrowed from 3.1% in early September.
A Trump Victory Could Accelerate Crypto Adoption
“The most favorable outcome for the crypto market would be a Trump victory alongside a Republican sweep in Congress,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA.org. Fan believes that such a result would improve the odds of passing crypto-friendly legislation, including the Trump-Vance-endorsed digital asset reform plans.
Impact of Federal Reserve Policy on Bitcoin
Following the presidential election, another significant macroeconomic event will take place: the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 94.4% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the meeting.
“If Trump’s momentum holds and the Fed takes a more dovish stance, Bitcoin could gain further traction,” Jung said, hinting that Bitcoin might experience renewed momentum in the weeks following the election and FOMC meeting.
With Bitcoin just shy of the $70,000 mark, the intersection of political and economic developments could play a critical role in determining whether it reaches a new all-time high in the coming weeks.
