Bitcoin could retest its all-time high, exceeding $73,000, on November 5th, coinciding with the US presidential election, according to Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick’s forecast is based on an analysis of bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
Standard Chartered Expects Even More Gains for Bitcoin if Donald Trump Wins
“We utilize daily bitcoin volume levels and prominent strike levels to project post-election price fluctuations. Our base case anticipates a bitcoin price of approximately $73,000 on election day,” Kendrick stated in an email communication on Thursday.
Kendrick’s analysis delves into potential price scenarios based on election outcomes. A Donald Trump victory, he suggests, could trigger an initial 4% price surge based on options breakeven points, potentially reaching a total 10% increase in the days following the election. Conversely, a Kamala Harris victory might lead to an initial dip, but Kendrick projects a year-end 2024 price of around $75,000 for bitcoin in this scenario.
The analyst highlighted the significance of options market dynamics in understanding potential post-election price movements. Substantial open interest in BTC call options expiring on December 27th at the $80,000 strike price suggests a possible rapid ascent toward that level.
A Republican sweep of Congress, according to Kendrick, could further propel bitcoin’s price. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target for bitcoin could rise to $125,000,” he projected.
Kendrick linked recent bitcoin price increases to trading activity aligned with Trump supporters. He cited RealClearPolitics data indicating a 59% probability of a Trump victory, while specialized markets like Polymarket suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep should Trump win.
Furthermore, Kendrick believes that Wednesday’s dip in bitcoin price to a local low of $65,200 likely represents the final downturn before the election. This suggests a potential upward trajectory for the cryptocurrency in the lead-up to November 5th.
