Despite Bitcoin’s recent retreat from the near-$100,000 mark to around $95,000, investment management firm ARK Invest remains bullish, predicting a potential surge to as high as $124,000 before the end of the year.
In an interview with CoinDesk, ARK Invest research associate David Puell outlined the firm’s optimistic outlook. “We’re more or less anticipating $104,000 to $124,000 price targets by year-end,” Puell stated, emphasizing that this projection isn’t a recommendation but rather an analysis based on current data.
Puell’s forecast is grounded in Bitcoin’s historical seasonality – patterns observed in previous bull markets – and on-chain metrics. He believes market cycles remain a significant factor influencing Bitcoin’s price, anticipating an eventual market top followed by a substantial correction similar to what occurred in 2022.
“I would classify the current market environment as a sort of middle of the bull,” Puell explained, estimating that Bitcoin is currently 55% to 65% of the way to its cycle peak. Based on on-chain metrics, he places this peak between $126,000 and $134,000, with the potential for even higher targets if the market accelerates further.
This projection aligns with the theory of diminishing returns in Bitcoin cycles, where each subsequent cycle yields smaller percentage gains as the asset matures. A $134,000 peak would represent roughly double Bitcoin’s 2021 high of $69,000, compared to the tripling of its price from the 2017 cycle peak. Puell acknowledged ARK Invest’s preparedness for this scenario but noted that the data remains inconclusive.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s earlier prediction of $1 million to $1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2030, with a base target of $650,000, adds further context to the firm’s bullish stance. Puell highlighted factors like the incoming Trump administration, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve as potential price drivers. He likened the impact of a strategic reserve to “a whole new cake on top of a cake.”
Despite the optimism, Puell acknowledges the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, anticipating an eventual bear market and a potential 70% drop from its all-time high.
