Cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten believes Bitcoin is likely to rally after the US election, regardless of the winner, based on historical patterns. While short-term volatility is expected around the election results, Van Straten points to Bitcoin’s performance following previous US elections as a bullish indicator.
Bitcoin Price Rallied After All Previous US Elections
Bitcoin has witnessed three US elections since its inception in 2009, and each time, its price has rallied significantly, never returning to its pre-election day level. If this trend continues, Van Straten predicts a peak in Bitcoin’s price approximately one year after the election.
Historical Precedents:
- 2012: Bitcoin traded around $11 during the 2012 election. By November 2013, its price soared to over $1,100, representing a staggering 12,000% increase.
- 2016: Bitcoin traded around $700 in early November 2016. It peaked at approximately $18,000 in December 2017, a 3,600% surge.
- 2020: Following the November 2020 election, Bitcoin rallied 478% to reach nearly $69,000 a year later, eventually hitting an all-time high of over $73,000 in March 2024.
Van Straten observes a diminishing return pattern in these rallies, with the percentage gains decreasing over each election cycle. Extrapolating this trend, he suggests a potential 47.8% rally post-election, which could propel Bitcoin to around $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Furthermore, Van Straten argues that Bitcoin is currently undervalued compared to previous cycles, both from its post-FTX collapse low in November 2022 and the April mining reward halving. He notes that this cycle has seen the weakest performance following a halving, with Bitcoin only 7% higher than its pre-halving price, further supporting the diminishing returns theory.
