Bitcoin is on the verge of marking its longest-ever period of sideways price action, frustrating bulls anticipating a significant rally before the year’s end. With the U.S. elections looming and rising U.S. Treasury yields, the cryptocurrency’s stagnant performance is attributed to various macroeconomic factors, including political uncertainty and market conditions.
As of Friday, 285 days have passed since Bitcoin’s halving in April, with prices fluctuating between $59,000 and $65,000.
If no major price rally occurs within the next two weeks, it will mark the longest sideways market since any previous halving, according to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju. Typically, halving events—where Bitcoin’s block rewards to miners are reduced—trigger significant bull markets, with the asset historically increasing in value by several hundred percent in the months following.
This year, however, the market has remained largely flat, with some experts pointing to the U.S. election as a potential catalyst. Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen as crypto-friendly, especially due to his involvement with the decentralized finance project World Liberty Finance.
In contrast, the Democratic Party is perceived as less favorable to the crypto market. A Republican victory could fuel optimism and push Bitcoin higher, as market sentiment typically aligns with political events.
In the short term, traders are also monitoring movements in U.S. Treasury yields, which have impacted the broader financial market and contributed to Bitcoin’s sideways action.
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, noted that rising bond yields and stock market gains are helping push the U.S. dollar higher, exerting downward pressure on crypto prices. Fan also cited a delay in repayments from the defunct exchange Mt. Gox as alleviating some of the potential supply pressures on Bitcoin, at least until October 2025.
