Prediction markets, which gained prominence for their accuracy during the recent presidential election, are now offering insights into the future price of Bitcoin. With the cryptocurrency surging following Donald Trump’s victory, these platforms provide a glimpse into where investors believe Bitcoin might be headed.
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, bets on Bitcoin’s November price point to a 72% probability of reaching $95,000. Other possibilities include $105,000 (23% probability) and $110,000 (14% probability). A separate contract on Polymarket gives Bitcoin a 60% chance of staying above $90,000 on November 22nd, while the odds of reaching $100,000 in November stand at 42%.
Looking further ahead, Kalshi, another prediction market, shows a 52% probability of Bitcoin reaching $125,000 or higher before 2026, with a 44% chance of hitting $150,000 or more within the same timeframe.
Beyond prediction markets, Wall Street analysts are also weighing in. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, whose 2023 stock market predictions proved remarkably accurate, maintains his optimistic outlook on Bitcoin. While his earlier prediction of $150,000 by year-end appears less likely, Lee still believes “six figures” is achievable before 2024, with further gains anticipated in 2025 and 2026. He attributes this potential surge to Bitcoin’s increasing relevance post-halving and a diminishing regulatory overhang.
Bitcoin’s November rally, which has seen a 32% price increase and more than doubled its value this year, would require another 10% climb to reach $100,000. However, there are indications that the post-election momentum is slowing, mirroring a losing week for the stock market. Despite this, key elements of the “Trump trade,” such as Tesla stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar, remain strong.
Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, shares the optimistic outlook, expressing confidence in Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark soon. “I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” Thompson stated, adding that it’s “very possible by end of month.”
