Despite the growing political divide in the cryptocurrency industry, many investors believe bitcoin will thrive in the long term, no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November. This optimism follows a period of heightened excitement over former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto remarks earlier in the year.
Concerns that a potential Kamala Harris presidency could harm bitcoin’s price are overstated, according to James Davies, co-founder of Crypto Valley Exchange. While the regulatory landscape might become more challenging for crypto startups, the overall industry will continue to advance, particularly with bitcoin becoming more institutionalized through the introduction of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“Some of our communities have become echo chambers, convinced that one side winning will lead to disaster,” said Davies. “The truth is, the market is strong, not just centered on the U.S., and hasn’t reacted negatively to significant events from either political side.”
He added that the future of bitcoin is less about U.S. politics and more about global market opportunities. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, lobby both sides, and ensure success regardless of who wins the election.”
Exaggerated Concerns Over Harris Presidency
Some analysts agree that fears surrounding a Harris presidency have been exaggerated due to the industry’s strained relationship with the Biden administration. However, Lubka from Swan Bitcoin said, “All the indicators we’re seeing suggest a de-escalation of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric.”
Tyrone Ross, founder of 401 Financial, emphasized that the election’s results are unlikely to impact bitcoin significantly over the next year. He pointed to ongoing developments such as ETF approval processes, upcoming interest rate cuts, and a low retail trading environment as key factors that will drive bitcoin’s performance.
Although bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024—well below its all-time high of over $73,000—many expect the price to remain stable until after the election. While recent political events, including a debate between Harris and Trump, have led to slight fluctuations in bitcoin’s value, macroeconomic developments remain the primary driver of price changes.
Partisan Sentiment Grows in Crypto Industry
In recent months, some have speculated that the election could act as a catalyst for bitcoin, with a potential second Trump presidency viewed as favorable for the industry. Trump, who spoke at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville earlier this year, has placed crypto issues on the Republican Party’s radar.
Analysts at Bernstein have suggested that a Trump victory could push bitcoin to new highs of around $80,000, while a Harris win might cause a temporary dip toward $40,000. However, Lubka cautions against overreacting to short-term election outcomes, noting that bitcoin’s long-term success is not tied to U.S. politics.
Although Harris has not made her views on cryptocurrency clear, parts of the industry are concerned she may adopt a hostile stance similar to that of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, both of whom are seen as obstacles to broader crypto adoption.
Despite these concerns, Lubka reminded investors that bitcoin has performed well even under hostile conditions. “Bitcoin has been one of the most successful assets in the world, even when governments have been opposed to it,” he said. “It has a history of thriving, regardless of political challenges.”
