The US presidential election could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, according to market analysts. With over $133 million invested in lobbying efforts by the crypto industry, the stakes are high for the digital asset sector. Experts predict drastically different outcomes for Bitcoin depending on who wins the presidency.
A Donald Trump victory is viewed by some as potentially bullish for Bitcoin. Trump has expressed support for halting the SEC’s crypto crackdown, releasing Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Joshua de Vos, Research Lead at CCData, anticipates a short-term rally if Trump wins, citing “increased certainty and the potential for a more supportive regulatory environment.”
Estimates for the extent of this rally vary. Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $90,000 following a Trump win. Both David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mills share this optimistic outlook, suggesting a new record high of $100,000. Standard Chartered offers an even more bullish prediction, forecasting a potential surge to $125,000 by the end of 2024 if Republicans sweep the presidency, Senate, and House.
Conversely, Kamala Harris’s stance on crypto is less clear. While her campaign has engaged with the industry, her public statements have been limited to expressing encouragement for “innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.” This ambiguity has led some crypto skeptics to fear a continuation of the Biden administration’s regulatory approach.
De Vos acknowledges the potential for a short-term negative reaction if Harris wins, due to “new uncertainties.” However, he also suggests that her policies might offer more clarity compared to the current administration. Bernstein analysts project a potential 30% drop to $50,000 if Democrats win, while Standard Chartered maintains a more positive outlook, predicting a rise to $75,000 this year.
Despite these contrasting predictions, a consensus emerges regarding Bitcoin’s resilience. Bernstein projects Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election outcome, stating that “the Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle.”
Macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and China’s stimulus package, will also play a crucial role in influencing Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, according to Brickell and Mills. Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, chief commercial officer of XBTO, echoes this sentiment, stating that regardless of the election result, the macroeconomic environment supports Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end.
