CryptoQuant analysts have identified potential for Bitcoin to rally, citing a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a rise in gold prices. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut by half a percentage point on September 18, short-term Treasury bill yields have been dropping, while gold has gained nearly 5% in value.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” could follow gold’s upward trajectory.
In a post on X, CryptoQuant highlighted a historical parallel between falling Treasury yields and the performance of gold. “In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury bill yields started to lower, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 per ounce in 2011. In 2024, a similar trend is occurring, with gold rising from $2,000 to nearly $2,700. Bitcoin may potentially follow a similar pattern,” the analysts wrote.
CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartunn emphasized that the fall in 13-week U.S. Treasury yields is supporting the rise of safe-haven assets like gold, noting that the decline is part of a broader macroeconomic trend. “Falling yields often coincide with recessions and changes in the money supply (M2),” he explained, drawing parallels with the 2007-2009 recession when an increase in the M2 money supply fueled demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.
Maartunn pointed out that a similar dynamic occurred during the pandemic when an expansion of the money supply drove interest in assets like Bitcoin, which cannot be easily manipulated by governments.
Adding to this perspective, Bitwise European Head of Research André Dragosch noted that the global money supply has reached an all-time high, which has historically been associated with bullish trends for Bitcoin. “We generally expect that these rate-cutting expectations will continue to be a major positive driver for Bitcoin and crypto assets,” Dragosch said. He also suggested that Bitcoin’s current price has not yet fully factored in the recent improvements in monetary policy expectations, hinting at a potential catch-up rally.
With ongoing shifts in monetary policy and a rising demand for safe-haven assets, CryptoQuant analysts believe Bitcoin could benefit in the near term.
