A French trader has placed a staggering $45 million bet on Donald Trump winning the upcoming US presidential election, according to an investigation by crypto prediction market platform Polymarket. The revelation follows concerns about potential market manipulation due to several large bets favoring a Republican victory.
Polymarket, which prohibits US users, confirmed the French trader’s involvement after investigating several substantial accounts backing Trump. A company spokesperson stated on Thursday that their investigation revealed the individuals behind these accounts possess “extensive trading experience and financial services backgrounds.”
Millions of dollars were collectively wagered by these accounts in support of a Republican win on November 5th. Online investigators had previously raised concerns about the possibility of a single individual operating multiple accounts to artificially influence Trump’s odds.
However, Polymarket’s spokesperson stated, “Based on our investigation, we learned that this individual took directional positions based on personal views of the election. In addition, the investigation to date has not found any information that indicates this user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market.”
The spokesperson’s statement suggests that the French trader’s substantial bet reflects a genuine conviction in Trump’s victory rather than an attempt to distort the market.
This massive wager has significantly impacted the predicted probabilities on various platforms. Polymarket currently shows a 61.6% implied probability of a Trump victory, compared to 59% on Kalshi and 57% on PredictIt.
