Vice President Kamala Harris enters her party’s nominating convention this week with a lead over former President Donald Trump in a potential head-to-head matchup, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. The survey highlights improved enthusiasm for Harris compared to President Joe Biden, along with perceived readiness for the presidency, particularly among key swing voters and independents.
However, Trump’s edge remains firm on some of the most critical issues in the race: the overall economy, inflation, and immigration. These issues are keeping the competition tight despite Harris’s current lead.
The poll shows Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz leading Trump and Senator JD Vance by 50% to 45% among all adults. For registered voters, the margin is slightly narrower, at 49% to 45%. Among likely voters, Harris holds a 6-point lead, with 51% support compared to Trump’s 45%.
Notably, more respondents see Harris as qualified for the presidency, with 53% supporting her qualifications versus 47% for Trump.
In a broader five-way race that includes third-party candidates, the Harris/Walz ticket leads 47% to Trump/Vance’s 44% among both the general public and registered voters, with a 49% to 45% advantage among likely voters. While these differences are within the poll’s margin of error, they suggest Democrats may prefer a two-way contest.
Support for alternative candidates has dwindled: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with running mate Nicole Shanahan, now garners just 5%, down from a peak of 12% in April. Other candidates, like Cornel West and Jill Stein, remain at 1% each. Ballot access remains uncertain, with Kennedy currently appearing on the ballot in 21 states, Stein in 20, and West in eight.
Despite Harris’s overall lead, Trump continues to dominate on economic issues, leading Harris by 9 points in trust to handle both the economy and inflation. With over 85% of respondents ranking these as top priorities, these concerns could be decisive in the election.
Market predictions, as tracked by cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, also reflect a tightening race. Harris’s probability of winning the 2024 presidential election has fallen to 50%, while Trump’s chances have risen to 49%, nearly closing the previous gap.
