Web3 accelerator Outlier Ventures has declared that the widely believed four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price action is dead, following what it describes as the cryptocurrency’s worst performance after a halving event to date.
“Four months after the latest Bitcoin halving, we’re witnessing the worst price performance following any halving to date,” said Jasper De Maere, Head of Research at Outlier Ventures, in a report released Tuesday.
Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years and cut miners’ block rewards by 50%, have traditionally been seen as catalysts for significant price increases. However, this year’s halving, which took place on April 20 and reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, has not sparked the usual bullish momentum. Instead, Bitcoin’s price is down about 8% 125 days after the event, marking the weakest post-halving performance in the cryptocurrency’s history.
Historically, Bitcoin experienced substantial gains following halving events: a 739% increase after the 2012 halving, a 10% rise after the 2016 halving, and a 22% gain after the 2020 halving. But De Maere argues that 2016 was the last time a halving had a “significant, fundamental impact” on Bitcoin’s price. He attributes the diminishing influence to the maturation of the digital asset market, where Bitcoin’s block subsidy rewards have become negligible.
De Maere noted that while the halving still holds psychological significance, its impact on the market has waned. He cited data showing that the potential market effect of all miners instantly selling their rewards would be just 0.17% of volume today, compared to 1% to 5% in the years leading up to 2017.
The report also dismissed the idea that the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year could explain the lack of post-halving price momentum. While some have suggested that these ETF approvals pulled demand forward, De Maere contended that the ETF approval process and the halving are driven by different market forces—demand and supply, respectively—and are not mutually exclusive.
Outlier Ventures emphasized that while Bitcoin’s price significantly influences the broader cryptocurrency market and the fundraising environment for Web3 projects, the fading influence of the four-year cycle does not indicate bearishness. Instead, De Maere urged founders and investors to adapt to the evolving market dynamics and move away from relying on the four-year cycle as a guidepost.
The report signals a shift in how market participants may need to approach Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space as it continues to mature and diversify.
