Venture capitalist and Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya recently expressed concern over the potential of Google’s new quantum computing chip, Willow, to disrupt the cryptocurrency landscape, particularly Bitcoin. After seeing Google CEO Sundar Pichai’s post about Willow, Palihapitiya admitted to missing a meeting as he scrambled to calculate the potential threat to Bitcoin’s security.
According to Palihapitiya, it would take approximately 8,000 Willow chips to break the SHA-256 encryption algorithm that underpins Bitcoin. He estimated a “two to five year shot clock” before this level of quantum computing power becomes a reality, forcing blockchains to adopt new hashing algorithms.
Palihapitiya’s analysis hinges on the assumption that Willow represents “one stable, logical qubit equivalent in a chip.” He noted that roughly 4,000 chips would be needed to break RSA 2048 encryption, a widely used standard for secure data transmission.
While acknowledging the potential disruption, Palihapitiya emphasized the significant technical hurdles still facing quantum computing. He pointed to the complexity of logical interconnects and chip-to-chip communication as major challenges. “If you put two chips on a board,” he explained, “like the C2C communication is complicated. All this stuff that we haven’t figured out how to do, but this is a big deal.”
Despite these challenges, Palihapitiya believes the development of Willow is a significant step forward. He expressed astonishment at the potential implications, stating, “I was really like, my God, what’s going on here?”
The implications of readily available quantum computing power for cryptography are far-reaching. If SHA-256 were to be broken, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies relying on this algorithm would become vulnerable to attacks. Palihapitiya’s warning underscores the need for the crypto community to proactively develop and implement quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions. He predicts that some blockchains will be forced to “re-implement something at a pretty foundational level” within the next few years to mitigate this emerging threat.
