Cryptocurrency-based predictions market Polymarket is intensifying efforts to verify that high rollers on its platform are located outside the US, following a noticeable increase in bets favoring Donald Trump for the upcoming presidential election. Due to regulatory restrictions, users in the US are not permitted to trade on the platform.
A source familiar with Polymarket’s internal operations, who spoke anonymously, confirmed that the company is conducting thorough checks on users, particularly those placing substantial wagers, to ensure compliance with its policies.
In recent weeks, scrutiny of Polymarket’s political markets has surged, largely due to a small number of accounts wagering millions on Trump’s potential return to the White House. Notably, a trader known as Fredi9999 has bet over $18 million on Republican outcomes, with nearly $13 million allocated to the primary presidential market, making this account the largest bettor in the market’s history. Fredi9999 is also Polymarket’s most profitable trader to date.
Investigations by blockchain analysts, including users on X known as FozzyDiablo and Domahhhh, supported by research from Arkham Intelligence, suggest that Fredi9999 and three other accounts may be operated by the same individual. The total spending across these four accounts on Republican outcomes exceeds $43 million. Importantly, none of these accounts are registered in the US.
Polymarket’s betting market for the US presidential election has become its most popular offering, amassing over $2.2 billion in trading volume this year alone. Recent heavy betting on Trump has pushed the implied probability of his victory to 64% on Polymarket, compared to 59% on PredictIt and 60% on Kalshi. In contrast, voter polls indicate Trump is slightly trailing his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 49.3% to 48.5% split according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
As the election campaign intensified over the summer, trading activity on Polymarket soared. While the platform officially bans US users, reports have indicated that American traders have found ways to access the site, often using virtual private networks (VPNs). Instructions for circumventing Polymarket’s restrictions are widely shared on social media platforms.
On Polymarket, traders purchase what are termed “yes” or “no” shares to predict specific outcomes. The volume of transactions helps determine the implied probabilities for each potential outcome in real-time.
Polymarket faced regulatory challenges in early 2022 when it was fined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for allegedly offering illegal trading services. Following a settlement, the company agreed to cease operations in the US while continuing to serve international users.
