QCP Capital’s daily analysis notes that the U.S. election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive, with predictions on Polymarket increasingly aligning with actual polling data. While Polymarket still leans toward Trump with a 55% win probability, this is a notable drop from 66% just a week ago.
Weekend trading showed Bitcoin prices mostly flat, with leveraged perpetual contract positions declining from $30 billion to $26 billion, signaling a cautious market.
Additionally, the options market saw significant activity, with heavy purchases of $75,000 November-end call options since last Friday. Implied volatility rose over 87% last week, even though actual volatility remained at 40%.
As election day approaches, these trends indicate a potential for sharp movements in Bitcoin’s price based on the outcome. Analysts at QCP suggest that should Trump win, the market could react with a swift price surge, while a Harris victory might bring downward pressure.
The cautious stance in leveraged positions, coupled with increased options activity, suggests that investors are bracing for volatility. Bitcoin is expected to remain within a defined trading range until the election results become clear later this week.
