Despite former President Donald Trump’s hints that he may skip the upcoming September 10 debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket believe he’s bluffing. As of Tuesday afternoon in New York, “Yes” shares for the question “Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept. 10?” were trading at 84 cents. This indicates that traders see an 84% chance he will participate in the debate.
The bets, encoded into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain, offer a $1 payout in stablecoin USDC if Trump follows through, and zero if he doesn’t. The contract launched Monday, and while odds briefly dipped as low as 72%, they have largely remained in the 80% range.
However, the stakes on this question are modest—around $22,000—compared to Polymarket’s contract on who will win the 2024 presidential election, which has accumulated hundreds of millions in bets. On that front, Trump held a slight edge at the time of writing.
Trump recently signaled he might skip the debate, accusing ABC News, the host, of bias. “Why would I do the debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” he posted on social media Sunday.
Meanwhile, Polymarket traders are less convinced that the candidates’ microphones will be muted during the debate, giving that scenario only a 40% chance. According to The Wall Street Journal, the microphone question has been a contentious point in negotiations, with the Harris campaign advocating for live mics and the Trump camp pushing for muted ones, similar to a previous CNN debate.
Although there is only about $7,000 riding on the microphone issue, Polymarket saw a record $414 million in trading volume last month, according to Dune Analytics.
It’s important to note that under a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is required to block U.S. users, so most of those wagering are likely analyzing the situation from outside the country. Even so, the financial commitment of these bettors suggests they are doing their research.
On Kalshi, a regulated U.S. platform, traders are offering a mixed outlook on the number of debates that will take place before the election: 47% for three debates, 42% for two, 11% for one, and only a 2% probability of none.
