In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal raised concerns about the authenticity of Donald Trump’s rising odds on the cryptocurrency prediction market, Polymarket, suggesting that a significant portion of this support may be artificially inflated.
Over the past two weeks, Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming November election have surged, with bettors currently giving him a 62% probability of victory, compared to Kamala Harris’s 38%. This shift is notable, especially considering that early October saw both candidates in a much tighter race.
However, an investigation into the betting patterns reveals that four accounts on Polymarket collectively invested around $30 million in cryptocurrency to bet on Trump’s win. Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, indicated that his analysis suggests these accounts may be linked to a single entity.
While some analysts believe these substantial bets could be the result of a confident gambler looking to secure a significant payoff, others speculate that they may be part of a larger influence campaign aimed at generating positive momentum for Trump on social media platforms.
Polymarket is currently conducting an investigation into the betting activities within its presidential election market, collaborating with external experts to ensure the integrity of the platform.
Cochran, managing partner of venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, noted that a $30 million investment could dramatically alter the odds on Polymarket. He emphasized that for someone with substantial financial resources, this could represent one of the most effective political advertisements available.
As of now, the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket has settled at approximately 60%, raising questions about the true dynamics of this election cycle and the potential impact of strategic betting on public perception.
